Villanova   -5.5     7 units

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Thursday’s FREE WINNER: Villanova Wildcats.

Game 677.

6:30 PM PST/9:30 PM EST.

Guys, I'll be very honest with you. If this line was a little bit lower, I would've put this play out not just as a premium release, but as a big game premium release. I will be in attendance for this matchup tonight at the MGM Grand Garden Arena here in Las Vegas, at the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown Tournament. Let's talk Villanova/USC. These two teams haven't met in more than a decade. But I feel there is a big mismatch here. The Wildcats are the sixth-best team in one of the most physical conferences in college basketball, the Big East, while the Trojans are the 14th-best team in the Big Ten. With all respect to USC, they are a decent team. But looking at their schedule this season, I just don't see them in a situation where there were asked to step up, and come out successfully. Yes, they've covered all three of their postseason games this year. But playing the likes of Rutgers, Purdue, and Tulane, is a far cry from facing the team they're going to face here tonight. Villanova is a very talented team. Not only that, but they are one of the most seasoned teams in the nation. We all know how good fifth-year senior, Eric Dixon is. The forward is a monster. And it seems like these past weeks, he stepped up his game even more. But he's not alone. He is surrounded by solid talent in Poplar, Longino, Perkins, Boakye, and Brickus. This is a deep squad, folks. USC does possess four double-digits scorers, and a couple players flirting with double-digits. They do account for a few more points offensively per game, and shoot over 48% from the field. But they are horrible on the offensive boards, and trust me when I tell you that is gonna’ really hurt them here. The defensive has gotten steamrolled this season, getting plowed for over 75.5-points per game. You know the Wildcats may not average a lot of points. But they are pretty accurate overall, rank third in the nation from downtown, and hit over 80% from the free-throw line. That would be enough for me to raise an eyebrow here. But defensively they are frustrating, yielding just 67.5-points per game, and rank in the top-15 on the defensive boards. They are going to take away any second-chance opportunities from the Trojans here. I look for this team to win with authority tonight, and go onto the Finals. Take Villanova. Thank you.

Arkansas   +5.5     7 units

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Thursday’s FREE WINNER: Arkansas Razorbacks.

Game 629.

7:05 PM PST/10:05 PM EST.

Sports fans, even for people like myself that do this professionally, and has that done very well for many years in it, sometimes you've gotta’ throw away all the facts you're looking at. My point being, everything I see in the Arkansas/Texas Tech matchup, is telling me to go with the Red Raiders. But yet this line is so short it's bothering me. Why is it so short? Well, maybe it's because John Calipari plays a big part in the success of the Razorbacks. This is a team that's playing some great basketball, fueled by a very frustrating defense. They have also covered 13 of their last 17 games. This does include ATS covers in all four of their postseason games against South Carolina, Mississippi, Kansas, and St. John's. Let's face it, we're not here for wins, we're here to make money. The way this team has stepped up this postseason, is remarkable. Particularly in the Big Dance Tournament. They came into this field of 64 the 10th seed in the West. No one gave them a chance against Kansas, and yet they took them down, 79-72. Then they were supposed to be sent packing against St. John’s, and yet they took down one of the best teams in the country, 75-66. A team that is not supposed to be here, is very dangerous. Yes, Texas Tech is damn good. But I think we can all agree they get overvalued by oddsmakers, only covering one of their four postseason games. And, in this Tournament, they've gone up against UNC Wilmington and Drake. With all respect to those two teams, they're not in the same class as the opponent they're going to face here today, and they certainly don't have a coach who has the experience and the success in March, like John Calipari. As I mentioned earlier, Arkansas does not matchup on paper against Texas Tech. Statistically, the Red Raiders have better numbers everywhere you look. But basketball is not played on paper. It's played on the hardwood, and in March things change. Experience, momentum, and confidence play a big part. Not to mention I feel Arkansas has less pressure on them than Texas Tech. Take the Razorbacks and take your bookmakers money. Thank you.